How Would Brexit Affect Our Industry?

Whatever your feelings about the EU are (mine are mixed), as the referendum over whether or not to remain draw nearer we're going to have to make a decision one way or the other. Not voting merely cedes the field to the dominant faction. And this is the question: which of those do we want to win and how would being in or out of the EU affect FM?

We have extensive dealings with Europe

My own employer has extensive dealings with Europe. The bigger the firm, the more likely this is. It's not only convenient, it saves money when we don't have to pay tariffs for importing items from member states. Only last year the turnstile at one of the sites I manage needed to be replaced. The manufacturer is German so we had to get it sent over from there. The cost was in excess of £2000. Now imagine duty and tariffs being added to that if we weren't in the EU any more. My own employer has offices and operations all over the world. A circular economy exists in the EU in which our trade with member nations benefits us all. Harmonised regulations (the dreaded red tape!) are a feature of that but the easy transfer of products and services across borders is the grease on the wheels.

How Brexit would affect this

If the UK left the EU, the route out would be secession and the process would take two years, during which any trade agreements made with other countries would be binding upon us. According to the Institute of Economic Affairs, a free trade agreement with Europe would be negotiated during this time to enable Britain to continue trading with our European neighbours. Given the length of time FTAs tend to take to be negotiated and concluded we may find that Britain is left in an economic limbo in the meantime. In practice, this means trying to find a UK-based turnstile manufacturer or a firm that is willing to manufacture the parts required should our turnstile fail again as the costs of getting a new one in from Germany would be prohibitive.

We are subject to their rules when trading with them

Regardless of our position, if we want to continue trading or operating within the EC we're going to have to play by their rules. Many of these are binding via our obligations under international law because of the trade agreements we're already signed up to. Those would not immediately wink out of existence if we quit tomorrow.

If Britain were to leave the EU, it would face a difficult dilemma: having to negotiate access to the EU’s single market in exchange for continued adherence to its rules – or losing access in return for regulatory sovereignty that would be largely illusory - The Great British trade-off: The impact of leaving the EU on the UK’s trade and investment, by John Springford and Simon Tilford for the Centre for European Reform

We'd have to negotiate a whole new set of agreements to govern our trading relationships with the rest of the world. This would change the way we relate to other countries when we trade with them.

If Britain withdrew from full membership of the EU, there would be a number of potential options for managing its trading relationships: membership of the European Economic Area (the Norway option); a customs union, similar to the one the EU has with Turkey; a basket of bilateral agreements such as that which exists between Switzerland and the EU; a so-called ‘vanilla’ free trade agreement such as the ones the EU has with countries ranging from South Korea to South Africa; and finally trade with the EU under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. None of these options would be straightforward. - The Great British trade-off: The impact of leaving the EU on the UK’s trade and investment, by John Springford and Simon Tilford for the Centre for European Reform

The idea, then, that we'd regain full sovereignty, then, is laughable, so anyone wanting to get out of the EU on the grounds that "we would finally regain control of our borders" or any other media-driven nonsense needs to wake up: a certain amount of sovereignty is always exchanged for the ability to trade, that's how trade relationships work.

The impact on UK businesses

Per the Telegraph, there is no one unified "voice of business" where Brexit is concerned and many of them seem to be playing their cards close to their chests. The Global Counsel website has a comprehensive report on what is likely to happen if we do leave — and it's not pretty. Short version: having to renegotiate our customs and relationships with other countries, and the regulatory divergence that would complicate matters, would most likely result in a drop in foreign investment. This is why many UK business leaders have written to the times to express support for remaining in an reformed EU.

The impact on FM

Our industry relies on immigration to bring in skilled workers from overseas. Whether you agree with the idea that wages must be kept low for businesses to thrive or not, this is the perception in our industry:
 

What is sure is that an EU exit would be most likely to have a dampening effect on migration to the UK, as free movement of labour would no longer apply. But for industries such as FM, which rely on large numbers of migrant workers willing to take on lower-paid roles, a cut in migration could make recruitment more difficult... Furthermore, for UK FM firms working across different European countries, doing business could suddenly become more awkward, and more costly. - Analysts predict the economic toll of ‘Brexit’ by Graeme Davies for FM World

FMJ provides a comprehensive outlook on what effect being in the EU has on FM:

The effect of this on FM is highlighted when you realise that a list of the top ten occupations of foreign born workers in the UK includes cleaning and housekeeping, food preparation, hospitality and leisure, security, IT and telecoms and services to buildings and landscapes.  At least according to the Migration Observatory. The implications of the UK leaving the EU on the average FM workforce could be unthinkable. - by Charlie Korten for FMJ September 2015

Basically, we need the freedom of movement enabled by membership of the EU to provide us with our workforce. I'm Irish, and was able to take advantage of EU membership to move over here (I didn't need a visa) in 1989. I've worked in many of the industries listed above. At work, I've noticed that many of our engineers and other staff are not UK-born, so I can tell from experience that this is correct.

How will you vote?

The referendum date has been set for Thursday 23 June 2016. The BBC have posted a helpful guide to explain it all, which I recommend you read to appraise yourselves of your options.

Brexit arguments in a nutshell

The Out faction basically think #*@$ begin at Calais and don't want "the foreigners" flooding into Soft Touch Britain, breeding like rabbits, then expecting us to provide them with money and housing as a human right, kind of thing. They blame EU red tape for everything from obscene amounts of waste to arbitrary bans on funny-shaped fruit.

The In faction rub their pudgy hands with glee every time a ferry docks at Dover, Southampton, or Hull because it's probably got some desperately poor East Europeans aboard who think a fiver is a lot of money, kind of thing. They see value in having all rules everywhere apply to everyone equally.

A subsection of the In faction believe that the EU can be reformed to exclude "ever closer union" so we don't end up in a United States of Europe; the Out faction believe this is inevitable so there's no point in trying to reform it.

Okay, you can see I'm fairly ambivalent about it. Basically I like the trading bloc idea, I just don't like the United States of Europe idea. I'll vote in the referendum, not just because I'm politically engaged, but because this is going to affect the FM industry one way or the other, and I've got to put that ahead of my other considerations because I really like my job. How I vote depends on what options I'm presented with. I'll let you know after the fact.