When Can We Go Back To Work?

Given the impact of the lockdown on the global economy, it's hardly surprising that there's a clamour for people to get back to work, but can we do it safely?

The Economists' take

The lockdown has prompted the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression. People being out of work has reduced the global economy by $9T USD. Tourism, travel, hospitality and entertainment have been absolutely flattened, afflicting the countries that rely on it the most the hardest. Recovery could take years. Meanwhile, the demands on the healthcare infrastructure are heavy. Meanwhile, supply chains are breaking down, causing artificial food shortages because producers can't get their products into the shops and slaughterhouses have been closed down.

What can be done to stimulate the economy?

The IMF recommendations include:

• spend generously on health provision, perform widespread testing, and refrain from trade restrictions on medical supplies
• ensure equal access to therapies, medicines, and vaccines
• credit guarantees, liquidity facilities, loan forbearance, expanded unemployment insurance, enhanced benefits, and tax relief support should continue so businesses can resume without an undue financial burden
• support demand, incentivise firm hiring, and repair balance sheets in the private and public sector to aid the recovery
• coordinate fiscal stimulus in countries with shared fiscal space 
• continue moratoria on debt repayments and debt restructuring to reduce the fiscal burden on poor countries

Where these measures aren't being followed, people are suffering; some are being made homeless and others are turning to food banks to meet basic needs.

The industry take

The Government has provided a list of businesses that need to stay closed during lockdown. Basically, anything that's not either food or medicine supply or building has to be shuttered. This has left a lot of people out of work, including myself; I was temping, not permanently employed, so when they shut the building down, I was let go. Those people on the gig economy, self-employed, or casual or temporary workers, have had to rely on public assistance programs to survive — when they can access them.

In the construction and related industries you can see that while people talk a good game where health and safety is concerned, in practice it doesn't happen; people flout social distancing and hygiene guidance. In the HSE forums you'll get shouted down by commenters for pointing out contradictions on the same page of Government guidance; many of them think it's time to relax Lockdown measures. Basically, business wants to get back to work, and I sympathise greatly, but when the public are not respecting social distancing and the workers aren't either, is it worth us risking our lives just to earn a crust? The curve has just about flattened in the UK but it's not going down yet; we're still getting about 30k new cases on a daily basis so talk of getting back to work is premature. But there is talk.has provided a list of companies planning to return to work; basically, they will use enhanced hygiene, social distancing, and staggered shifts to reduce employee exposure to the Coronavirus. This still leaves the questions of guidance on the use of PPE and legal liability unanswered.

What can be done to facilitate returning to work?

International business lawyers Eversheds Sutherland has questions about the legal implications:

When a phased return to work looks imminent, employers should carefully plan the return to work phase and consider what agreements they need to reach with employees about any revised working arrangements. Will remote working become part of the new working landscape; with hot-desking in the workplace and some days worked from home? What additional risk assessments and safety documentation and guidance will be required? Additionally, is the working environment safe, can employees immediately return or are surveys, inspections and remedial works required before re-commission of the premises?

There seems to be a general consensus, per the The Daily Mail, to implement the ideas listed above. A Coronavirus risk assesssment will be drawn up with plans for how to deal with workers presenting with symptoms (it's worth remembering at this point that the Coronavirus can be transmitted asymptomatically, i.e. you don't have to be ill to spread it), how to keep shared surfaces clean, and the use of PPE where appropriate. Working from home will continue as part of a phased approach.

The Government's take

The Business Secretary is working with businesses, unions, scientists, and doctors to agree on measures that can reduce transmission of the Coronavirus and to ensure workplaces are as safe as possible for people returning to work when Lockdown has been relaxed. This multilateral approach has resulted in the plastic screens we see in shops today; this is likely to be permanent. PPE will continue to be reserved for the NHS for the most part but people who have to work closely together may have to wear masks and limit their contact with others as much as possible where social distancing can't be achieved.

Smart phone contact tracing apps are being introduced on a voluntary basis. The idea is to track down anyone who may have been in contact with an infected person and advised to self-isolate. The trouble with this is that diagnosis isn't necessarily based on testing and we're still falling short of the Government's own daily testing target. In the meantime the Government is considering the possibility of reopening schools.

The Government's response has been shambolic, to say the least. Our Prime Minister Boris Johnson continued to shake hands with people until he caught the Coronavirus and ended up in hospital. It also gave contracts to companies that don't make medical ventilators instead of companies that do when it wasn't ignoring the EU's offer to help, then lying about missing the email. To add to our woes, PPE has been in short supply due to the disruption of supply chains and manufacturers having to prioritise their own countries' needs. Result: the Government has taken a hammering in the media.

What can the Government do better to manage its response to the Coronavirus?

My first recommendation would be to get ideological considerations out of the way; they are the main driver of the sheer incompetence we have witnessed. Supply chain problems aren't the Government's fault but putting Brexit over breathing is. Ditto favouring party donors over companies that have experience in making clinically appropriate approved equipment. They need to accept that the market won't provide; we need to work with the most competent entities in the most efficient way.

The next suggestion would be to use British manufacturers first and foremost to ensure a domestic supply of vital equipment. This would ensure robust supply chains as these manufacturers tend to be small to medium sized businesses. Giving grants to UK manufacturers to make PPE, machines, and other equipment will help to lift us out of recession and give us a world market to serve since the Coronavirus looks set to continue for a long time to come.

Finally, we need to raise our trace and test game until we can regularly test those people on the front line as well as the ones who make the country work. Only through widespread testing can we be certain of who has and who hasn't got the Coronavirus. While doing that, we need to enforce site hygiene and social distancing since they are the main ways of preventing infection.

Going back to work is inevitable, but we need to plan our approach to this carefully to stave off a disastrous second wave of infections that could exacerbate the current crisis.